How can i demonstrate that you get better odds of getting trips than a flush in texas holdem?
slyther asked:
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Tags: Odds, Straight Flush, Texas Holdem
October 24th, 2009 at 1:30 am
Free Hits
How about this. Get a table together and deal the cards to ten positions face up. Then deal the flop, turn and river.
Repeat the process for a set number of times.
Count how many times the some one get’s a set, straight and flush.
October 25th, 2009 at 2:18 am
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To begin with hands are ranked by difficulty to hit
Best hand- Royal Flush - most difficult
What beats what? 3 of a kind versus a flush or a straight.
3 of a kind loses so it’s an easier hand to hit
it’s not magic, it’s a math/statisical problem
52 cards, 4 suits, 13 cards/suit
October 25th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
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you only need three cards to make a “trip”. while you need five specific cards to make a straight or flush. simply put it is easier to get three cards you want than five.
October 26th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Doyles Room Poker
If your first two cards are suited, Yes you have a better chance of getting a flush than trips. if they arent, you have a better chance of getting trips.
There are many websites out there that explain odds and many odds calculators. Instead of having someone post the extreemly long formulas showing why this is…..why not take him to those sites?
I think the easiest way to explain this to him would be just to say, “Hey dummy, if it were easier to get trips than a flush, why does a flush beat trips?” Do you actually think you are smarter than all the millions of people who have been playing poker before you?” Then you should probably punch him in the arm for being so stupid.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Poker Tips
basically hitting trips is like 3/4 right
getting a straight or flush is 5/13
but although you have more outs for a flush/straight, you have to hit 5 cards, not just 3 therefore making it harder to hit your flush or straight because you have to factor in all the other suits and cards that wont make your straight. hope that made sense.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
2009 Wsop
A demonstration is rather tough because it would require a manual dealing of cards. You just have to find a website that describes the odds.
You also need to explain to him that a 3 of a kind also includes a pair on the board with you having the third or even 3 of a kind on the board. He probably thinks you’re talking about hitting a set. He’s probably also thinking that he’s starting with a suited pair with 2 suits on the board. Assumptions like that throws off the line of thinking in most people.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:19 am
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The best way to prove him wrong is by explaining the mathematics. There are 133,784,560 different hands possible in hold’em, and more of these hands will have trips than a straight or flush. I could explain it in exhaustive detail, but that’s already been done by others. Read the link, understand the math, and you can easily demonstrate to your friend that the probability favors the trips.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:34 pm
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OK, he’s talking about drawing to a str8 or flush. In Holdem with the flop on the board, we use The Rule of 2’s (an out is worth about 2%), so with 2 cards to come before the turn, an out is worth 4%, after the turn, with 1 card to come an out is worth 2%.
You have AhKd The flop is AdKhx you have 2 out for the A’s to make trips and 2 for the K’s, multiply the 4 outs X 4%= 16% chance of hitting trips if played to the river for a boat. The turn card is another x , so with 1 card to come multiply you 4 outs by 2%= 8% chance. If you only had paired 1 card of the flop your outs would only be 2.
Now the flush, you have AhKh, and the flop is hhx, there are 13 hearts, you have 2, and there’s 2 on the board. The 9 remaining hearts are your outs, and again with 2 cards to come, it’s 9 out’s X 4%=36% if the turn is a blank x again it’s still 9 outs X 2%= 18% chance left to make it on the river.
This is entirely different from the overall probabilities of hands which is what you are talking about. 3 of a kind is 46 to 1, a str8 is about 5 times harder at 254 to 1, and a flush twice again less frequent at 508 to 1, for 5 card hands. A 3 card group (3ofK)is easier to get than a 5 card sequence (str8) using all suits, and a flush is a 5 card group of only one suit and is harder still to get.